Armenian Elects President on Feb. 19

By Zaruhi Shushanian

On Feb. 19, the 18 year-old Republic of Armenia (RA) will elect its third president. For a country with a young democracy, the upcoming presidential election is of crucial importance. The future of a country with closed borders, its developing economy and the resolution of the Karabakh conflict are at stake.

Nine Candidates

Nine candidates have been nominated by the RA Central Electoral Commission. They are: Serge Sarkisian, RA Prime Minister and leader of the Republican Party of Armenia; Vazgen Manukyan, former Prime Minister of Armenia and leader of the National Democratic Union; Vahan Hovhannesian, deputy speaker of the RA Parliament and member of the ARF-Dashnaktsutyun; Arthur Baghdasaryan, leader of the Orinats Yerkir (State of Law) Party; Levon Ter-Petrossian, leader of the Armenian National Movement opposition party); Artashes Geghamian, leader of the National Unity Party; Tigran Karapetian, leader of the Peoples’ Party of Armenia and president of ALM (Alternative Mass Media); Aram Harutyunian, head of the National Consent Party and professor at Yerevan State University; and Arman Melikyan, former advisor to the NKR President.

Long before the race officially began, some Armenian newspapers (mostly opposition ones) talked about the possibility that certain candidates would joining forces. None of the candidates, however, have removed their candidacy bid so far.

Though the nine candidates constantly repeat their I-am-sure-of-my-victory phrases, only a few of them have a clear lead over their rivals, judging from public polls and the number of citizens who have come out to support both candidates during their rallies. They are Sarkisian, Ter-Petrossian as well as Hovhannesian and Baghdasaryan.

According to the Haikakan Zhamanak (Armenian Times) Daily, the authorities give a high approval rating to Baghdasaryan in “biased polls.” It suits them well to see Baghdasaryan in the second possible round, as it would guarantee Serge Sarkisian’s victory. However, the newspaper refrains from forecasting the results of the February election, which “totally differs from the preceding ones.”

Baghdasaryan has suggested that his rivals form at least one unified election campaign office in each region a week before the election. “We have received positive feedback on this issue, and at present we are negotiating with the representatives of the other candidates’ election campaign offices to work together for a free and transparent election,” said Hovhannes Margarian, a member of Orinats Yerkir.

What makes Hovhannesian stand out is that his election program and approaches that are employed by candiates for office in democratic countries in the West. He believes Armenia is governed by strong economic clans formed after privatization in the 1990s. And “these clans have swallowed the political power,” he was quoted as saying.

The ARF candidate has signed over 170,000 agreements with citizens, containing a summary of his program and the expectations of his electorate. Any citizen who voluntarily signs the agreement gets a special card and joins the candidate’s election campaign.

Candidates Geghamian and Manukyan both have considerable experience in participatng in elections and have their own viewpoints on the future development of Armenia.

This time, he’s not organizing rallies in Yerevan and Armenia’s regions, as most of his rivals do. Manukyan only uses his airtime to introduce his election program and objectives. His slogan is: “To change, not to tolerate.”

Geghamian has made the most radical and offensive statements concerning his rivals. During his rally held on Jan. 28, or Army Day, he blamed slain Prime Minister Vazgen Sarkisian’s brother Aram Sarkisian (who supports Levon Ter-Petrossian) and his family for sowing anarchy in Armenia. Geghamian even used offensive words when referring to Aram Sarkisian. Some local organizations, including the Yerkrapah Kamavors (freedom fighters), condemned the candidate’s behavior.

According to the Aravot (Morning) Daily’s poll conducted in December 2007, Geghamian will be able to capture about five percent of the vote.

Karapetian believes he is the only candidate who can “offer an alternative solution to all problems in the country.”

Melikyan, in contrast to some of his rivals who are for the compromise settlement of the Karabakh conflict, does not approve of any compromise and or negotiations with Azerbaijan.

According to the Gallup Poll, Melikyan and Harutyunyan would earn less than two percent of the vote in the February election.

Polls

On the initiative of the U.S. Gallup Organization, the Armenian Sociological Association conducted a poll to gauge public opinion on the presidential candidates. The poll was sponsored by the International Republican Institute (IRI).

On Feb. 6, the A1 Plus Daily published an article claiming that the public poll had nothing to do with Gallup and IRI. According to the source, IRI representatives lack the authority to survey the rating of Presidential candidates during the race. A1 Plus claims that the poll was instead taken by a Lithuanian citizen named Rasa Alisausiene, who is “neither a Gallup scientist nor expert.” Instead, she is the president of Baltic Surveys Ltd., which has recently been cooperating with Gallup.

A1 Plus quotes an article published on Gallup’s official website and in the Harvard International Review—titled “Gallup Exclusive: Conflict in the Caucasus: New Surveys on Azerbaijan-Armenia”—which estimates that 83 percent of Armenians are dissatisfied with Prime Minister Serge Sarkisian’s policies.

According to Stepan Safarian, a member of the Zharangutyun (Heritage) Party, Sarkisian’s rating has dropped recently. In a poll taken by Aharon Adibekian’s Sociometer Free Sociological Centre last month, Sarkisian enjoyed 67 percent of public support; yet, according to the Populus British Sociological Company, the his rating was at 50.7 percent, explains Safarian.

By the end of this week, the Zharangutyun Party will announce who they are going to support in the upcoming Presidential elections.

Ter-Petrossian Applies to Consitutional Court

On Feb. 8, Levon Ter-Petrossian applied to the RA Constitutional Court, claiming obstacles were being placed against his election campaign. Particularly, the Haylur news program (broadcast on the Public Television of Armenia) has been propagandizing against Ter-Petrossian for the past three months, he said, thus violating Articles 18, 20 and 22 of the RA Electoral Code, as well as Articles 11 and 28 of the Law on Television and Radio. He said it was the first time a Presidential candidate in Armenia is not able to carry out his campaign on equal terms with his rivals.

According to Article 52, if insurmountable obstacles are made for a candidate, the election wil be postponed for two weeks. If the obstacles are not removed by the end of those two weeks, a new election is held after 40 days.

The Constitutional Court dismissed Ter-Petrossian’s claim on Feb. 11.

OSCE/ODIHR Mission’s Interim Report

In a December 2007 letter to RA Minister of Foreign Affairs Vartan Oskanian, OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) representative Miklos Haraszti wrote: “The recent cases of harassment and violence against independent and opposition media have contributed to an atmosphere of intimidation and fear in the journalistic community in Armenia.”

On Jan. 30, the OSCE/ODIHR (Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights) Mission released the first interim report on the elections. The mission observed local media coverage of the race from Jan. 11-20, closely monitoring seven TV channels (the First Channel of the Public Television of Armenia, “ALM,” “Armenia,” Second Armenian TV Channel, Kentron, Shant and Yerkir Media); two radio channels (Public Radio of Armenia and Armenian Service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty); and daily newspapers (Hayastani Hanrapetutiun, Aravot, Azg and Haikakan Zhamanak).

According to their conclusions, before the official campaign kicked off on Jan. 21, “most of the broadcast media, including public television, demonstrated a clear imbalance in their coverage of the prospective candidates.”

“Television is the most important information source for citizens,” read the report. “Despite the relatively high number of media outlets in Armenia, the international organizations dealing with freedom of expression, including OSCE, have previously noted a lack of diversity of viewpoints presented in the broadcast media.”

Out of the seven TV channels, three granted Sarkisian most of the airtime.On the Second Armenian TV Channel, he received 66 percent of the total airtime; he received 56 percent on Kentron and 53 percent on Shant. According to the report, Sarkisian’s airtime on the Second Armenian TV Channel, Kentron, Shant and Armenia TV, even taking into account the execution of his official duties, exceeded the limit.

In contrast to positive or neutral coverage of Sarkisian’s campaign, Ter-Petrossian “was regularly portrayed in a negative light.”

The two radio channels that were observed presented Sarkisian merely as a candidate rather than the current Prime Minister. The report showed that the Public Radio of Armenia “was, in general, more balanced in the amount of time allocated to prospective candidates than [were] TV channels.” The coverage of candidates by the Armenian Service of RFE/RL “included greater diversity in their coverage,” the report read.