Harvard University Hosts Panel on Nagorno Karabagh Negotiations

By Jason Sohigian

CAMBRIDGE, MA--The Harvard University Caspian Studies Program presented a panel titled "Negotiations on Nagorno Karabagh: Where do we go from here?" on April 23. The panel followed the recent Karabagh talks sponsored by US Secretary of State Colin Powell in Key West earlier last month.

The Caspian Studies Program and its Azerbaijan Initiative sponsors the training of emerging leaders from Azerbaijan through US-Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce Fellowships. The program is also financed by ExxonMobil, Chevron, Aker-Maritime, CCC, and ETPM.

The panel was moderated by Dr. Brenda Shaffer, Research Director of the Caspian Studies Program, and featured Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh, the State Department Special Negotiator for Nagorno Karabagh; Professor Hamlet Isaxanli, the founder and president of Khazar University in Baku; and Professor Ronald Suny, from the University of Chicago.

Dr. Shaffer opened the program by alluding to a "breakthrough" in the Karabagh negotiations achieved by Ambassador Cavanaugh and the other co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group during the Key West talks. She also noted a perceived similarity in the identity and history of the people of Armenia and Azerbaijan, which may eliminate the need to utilize track-two diplomacy in resolving the Karabagh conflict.

Ambassador Cavanaugh stressed three main points in his presentation: the need for peace in the region, the important roles the two presidents will play in convincing their people of accepting a peace agreement, and that an economic settlement package will follow such an agreement. He indicated that the next round of talks in Geneva in June will follow the same format as Key West, which were called "proximity talks" because the presidents never really met face to face, but negotiators worked with them separately. Ambassador Cavanaugh reaffirmed that the results of the talks are still private, and that there seems to be a consensus that a peaceful resolution to the conflict, rather than a renewal of fighting, will benefit everyone.

In a short presentation, Professor Isaxanli discussed "the art of compromise" and suggested the need for a "well-balanced power sharing." He also said there is a need for agreement among all of the opposition parties, and that maybe more "transparent borders" would be needed in the region.

Dr. Suny began by reading what he called his pessimistic view of the Karabagh conflict from a few years ago, when he presented remarks to a State Department Forum, followed by his more recent "optimistic" view of the conflict, published in Middle East Policy in October 1999. He continued with his standard discussion of "the Academy," and how scholars discuss the Nation in different terms than journalists and nationalists. He argued that the issue of identity is not fixed over 3,000 years, and stressed the need to rethink the notion of a shared sovereignty.

Dr. Suny reminded the audience that "the people in the Caucasus are fated to live together, unless there is going to be another genocide." He proceeded to discuss some of the possibilities for the resolution of the conflict, and said a "land swap" is probably not on the agenda, but that a corridor linking Nakhichevan to Azerbaijan may be a possibility in exchange for Lachin and Karabagh. He closed by asking if the ideas could actually be sold to their people.

Following the presentations, the panel accepted questions. The first question concerned the makeup of the panel, specifically because the impression may have been created that the Azerbaijani and Armenian perspectives were represented, although neither professor had participated in the negotiations, and one was an Azerbaijani professor in the field of mathematics, while the other was an Armenian-American professor known for his minority viewpoint, both in Armenia and the Diaspora, as noted in his introduction by Dr. Shaffer. Dr. Shaffer indicated that they did not try to have the two sides represented in the panel, and Dr. Suny clarified the point that he was "not a spokesperson for the Armenian side."

In response to the question of how the presidents can be expected to convince their people to accept the terms of the present discussions if they are supposed to remain secretive and the only news of results from the talks comes from leaks to the media, Ambassador Cavanaugh gave examples of previous peace negotiations in the Middle East which were considered successful after being conducted behind closed doors.

Responding to a question about how one can discuss a breakthrough when President Aliyev's opening speech at Key West sounded the same as it would have ten years ago, Ambassador Cavanaugh said it was important to look at the remarks of both presidents before and after the talks in Key West. He cited the example of President Aliyev's speeches in the Azerbaijani Parliament, and said one can hear certain "elements emerging" in their words, but that perhaps they were too subtle if their people are not hearing them.

In response to a question about the role of the Armenian Diaspora, Dr. Suny suggested that the Diaspora is "more adamant" than the people in Armenia concerning Karabagh and the Genocide, and that President Kocharian is "ahead of the Diaspora."

Ambassador Cavanaugh noted that the Diaspora has "played a vital role in supporting Armenia." He acknowledged that Armenia has survived because of the financial and moral support of the Diaspora, and that the Diaspora also favors a peaceful settlement. He noted the Diaspora in the US, which "came to the US due to the aftermath of World War I," and "helps generate more political attention on this problem," has worked to ensure a significant amount of US aid to the region.

Ambassador Cavanaugh noted the high level of importance the new Bush administration has placed on resolving the Karabagh conflict and the general belief that a settlement will benefit everyone, from the people living in difficult conditions in these countries to all of the nations in the Caucasus and the West.

Presumably for lack of time, the panel failed to address a number of vital issues, including the importance to the US and the West of oil reserves believed to lie in the Caspian, which is considered one of the main factors for their devoting so much attention to the region and the resolution of the Karabagh conflict.

For more intentional reasons, given the participants in the discussion, the panel also failed to mention the legacy of the Armenian Genocide, which, as a result of an Armenian historical consciousness, ongoing denial on behalf of Turkey and its allies, and the failure of the international community to prosecute the perpetrators and exact restitution, has forced Armenians to ensure the security of Armenia's population and not fall victim to false promises.

It is also worth noting that Gerard Libaridian recently delivered a lecture titled "Nagorno Karabagh: What We Want And What We Need" at the AGBU Alex and Marie Manoogian School in Detroit in March. Professor Libaridian is teaching a course on modern Armenian history at the University of Michigan-Ann Arbor, and his talk was introduced by Professor Kevork Bardakjian.